Economic Survey projects India’s GDP growth at 6.3% to 6.8% for FY26
Keeping in mind the upsides and downsides to growth, the Economic Survey expects the real GDP growth in FY26 to be between 6.3 and 6.8%.

Despite global uncertainty, India has displayed steady economic growth and its real GDP growth of 6.4 per cent in FY25 remains close to the decadal average. (Image: Freepik)
The global economy – which grew by 3.3 per cent in 2023 — exhibited steady yet uneven growth across regions in 2024, as per the Economic Survey 2024-25 tabled by Union Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs Nirmala Sitharaman, in the Parliament today. However, despite global uncertainty, India has displayed steady economic growth and its real GDP growth of 6.4 per cent in FY25 remains close to the decadal average.
From an aggregate demand perspective, private final consumption expenditure at constant prices is estimated to grow by 7.3 per cent, driven by a rebound in rural demand. On the supply side, the real gross value added (GVA) is estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent. The agriculture sector is expected to rebound to a growth of 3.8 per cent in FY25, while the industrial sector is estimated to grow by 6.2 per cent in FY25.
Strong growth rates in construction activities and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services are expected to support industrial expansion. Growth in the services sector is expected to remain robust at 7.2 per cent, driven by healthy activity in financial, real estate, professional services, public administration, defence, and other services.
Keeping in mind the upsides and downsides to growth, the Survey expects the real GDP growth in FY26 to be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent.
Commenting on the Economic Survey, Dr. Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India, said, “The Economic Survey projects growth to be in the range of 6.3% to 6.8% in FY2025. Deloitte is slightly bullish on growth and predicts 6.5%-6.8% growth backed by strong domestic demand and pick up in investments. Strong farm output and a resilient services sector are key drivers of India’s growth, but global shifts demand careful navigation. Geo-economic fragmentation is reshaping supply chains as trade policies evolve in the West. To sustain momentum, India must enhance global competitiveness through structural reforms and deregulation. With the Economic Survey highlighting the need for 8% real GDP growth to achieve Viksit Bharat, strategic policy actions will be crucial in the medium term.”
Despite rising geopolitical and policy uncertainties, India’s services exports continue to gain global prominence, with its share in global services trade more than doubling to 4.3% in 2023. The country now ranks 2nd in Telecommunications, Computer, and Information Services exports and 3rd in Other Business Services. The economic survey highlights the importance of skillings and women participation and digital infrastructure, all of which will contribute to the strong growth in the services sector. Besides, servicification of manufacturing will be a key area to tap into as several industrial nations look inward to reshore manufacturing.
“While global FDI flows have been hit by economic volatility and rising borrowing costs, India has maintained steady inflows in FY25, with April to December numbers in FY outpacing numbers in the past FY. Several robust greenfield project announcements and international project finance deals have been announced with several States vying to attract new and bigger investment deals as they fiercely compete with each other. However, streamlining regulations and strengthening the legal system to fast settle disputes will be key to further strengthening India’s attractiveness as an investment destination,” she added.
AI is poised to disrupt work, jobs, and the workforce, and India must accelerate its efforts to stay ahead of this rapid transformation. According to the Econoimc survey to mitigate risks to labour markets, India needs robust enabling, insuring, and stewarding institutions. The right infrastructure and safety will go a long way in quick adoption of the new frontier technologies by both the industry and the workforce. Again, careful and long-term deployment will help them make the work force more agile and broad base societal benefits.
“As rightly pointed out, there is a need to coordinated efforts between the government, private sector, and academia to shape a future of work where AI enhances, rather than replaces, human labour,” Majumdar said.
Amidst the run to be a semiconductor hub, India will have to create employment opportunities and here industry such as textile holds great promises. As India aims to create 78.5 lakh new non-farm jobs annually until 2030, the textile industry, a long-standing pillar of India’s manufacturing sector, can play a crucial role. Contributing 11% to the country’s manufacturing GVA, the sector must evolve with the global shift from cotton to man-made fibers. Man-made fiber production offers the potential for vertical integration, which could be transformative for India. While high tariffs and the lack of Free Trade Agreements present challenges, initiatives like the National Technical Textiles Mission, PLI schemes, and PM-MITRA parks offer substantial growth opportunities. To harness this potential, India’s textile industry must focus on innovation, research and development, and alignment with global quality and sustainability standards.